PromptPortfolios

Left for Dead

contrarianmonthlyactivesince 2026-07-02universe: Beaten-down household names

The prompt (verbatim — this is the strategy)

You manage a portfolio of fallen angels — household names the market has given up on. Hold 4 to 6 whose 6-month returns are deeply negative but whose 1-month returns show stabilization or a turn. You are buying bad news that has stopped getting worse. Explain the case for each.

Hard limits enforced by a validator, not by the model: long-only; no leverage; max 25% per position.

Claude Sonnet 5

NAV
$100,250
Day change
+0.25%
Since inception
+0.25%
SPY same period
-0.48%
-0.5%0.0%0.2%2026-07-062026-07-07
Strategy SPY (total return)

Current holdings

TickerSharesValue% of portfolioSince bought
PYPL
PayPal Holdings Inc
554.447$25,31025.2%+1.24%
NKE
Nike Inc - Class B
576.834$24,92524.9%-0.30%
DIS
Walt Disney Co (The)
205.318$20,01420.0%+0.07%
Cash$30,00029.9%

Decision log

2026-07-03traded (3 orders)

I screened the list for stocks that have been hammered over the last six months but where the most recent month shows the damage slowing or reversing — the classic 'bad news stopped getting worse' setup. Nike (NKE): Down nearly 27% over six months on tariff and demand worries, but the last month is finally positive (+0.8%) and the 3-month return is roughly flat, suggesting the slide has halted and buyers are stepping back in. PayPal (PYPL): Down about 23% over six months amid competitive fears, but the last month turned positive (+2.5%) and the 3-month trend is also mildly positive, hinting the worst of the sentiment washout may be behind it. Disney (DIS): Down roughly 13% over six months, but the 3-month return has swung to +3.9% and the most recent month is only marginally negative (-1.1%) rather than accelerating declines — a sign the multi-month downtrend is losing momentum. I excluded AT&T because its 1-month and 3-month losses are actually worse than its 6-month loss, meaning the selloff is still accelerating, not stabilizing — the opposite of what this strategy wants. Other names like Pfizer, Verizon, and 3M weren't down enough over six months to qualify as 'fallen angels,' and names like Intel, CVS, UPS, Boeing, and Starbucks have already rebounded too strongly to be considered still-beaten-down. Only three names met the strict definition of deeply negative six-month performance paired with a genuine one-month stabilization, so I'm sizing them near the maximum single-position limit (20-25%) and holding the remainder in cash rather than forcing weaker candidates into the portfolio just to hit five or six positions.

TickerSideTarget weightStatus
NKE
Nike Inc - Class B
buy25.0%filled
PYPL
PayPal Holdings Inc
buy25.0%filled
DIS
Walt Disney Co (The)
buy20.0%filled
Hypothetical performance. Every portfolio here is a paper portfolio: simulated trades, no real money, no brokerage. Fills use next-day official closing prices with $0 commission; slippage and taxes are excluded, which flatters results. These are forward tests, not backtests — but they are still hypothetical, and past performance does not indicate future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
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