All-Weather Lite

Starting from all cash, we build a classic 'all-weather' portfolio designed to hold up no matter which economic season arrives. Stocks (SPY, 35%) capture growth when the economy expands, and have strong recent momentum (+14% over 3 months), so we lean in a bit. Long-term Treasuries (TLT, 20%) and intermediate Treasuries (IEF, 15%) act as ballast — they tend to rise when growth disappoints or markets get scared, cushioning stock losses; they're flat lately but that's fine, their job is insurance, not returns. Gold (GLD, 10%) protects against currency debasement and crisis risk; we trim it slightly below a standard allocation because it's been weak recently (down over 8% in a month), but we keep a meaningful stake since gold's value shows up in surprise inflation or crisis scenarios that don't show up in short-term charts. Commodities (DBC, 20%) are the strongest performer over six months (+17%) and are the best direct hedge against rising inflation, so we tilt more heavily into them. Together, this mix spreads risk across growth, deflation, and inflation scenarios: stocks for growth, bonds for deflation/recession, and gold plus commodities for inflation shocks. We're not chasing any single trend hard — just modestly tilting toward recent strength while keeping every piece of the puzzle in place, consistent with a patient, rarely-traded approach.